Cinema B+: The first favorites of the Golden Globes 2026

It’s personal, in two weeks we will be talking about the 2026 Awards Season, returning to speculating, criticizing, praising, cheering and surprising ourselves. This is all because the list of nominees for the 2026 Golden Globes will be released on December 8th, and yes, we will talk a lot about Wagner Moura and The Secret Agent, which is sure to be on the list of nominees for foreign film and actor. But I’m here to seal it: the drama Hamnet will be the big highlight of the beginning of the year, as a film, actor, actress, soundtrack… everything.

For reasons of calendar logic, as the Golden Globes open the season, it makes sense to look at who is most rated now – both in cinema and on TV.

The big turning point: when comedy/musical becomes a battlefield

Variety confirms: this season’s most competitive spot isn’t drama, it’s comedy/musical. What was always treated as a “fun category” became, in 2026, the real ring for the studios.

In the category of best comedy or musical film, the picture today is:

Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Marty Supreme (A24)

No Other Choice (Neon)

One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.) – predicted to win

Wake Up Dead Man (Netflix)

Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)

In other words: we have a gigantic musical (Wicked: For Good), a heavy authorial project (One Battle After Another), a sports drama with a cult feel (Marty Supreme), the new Knives Out entry, a dark South Korean comedy (No Other Choice) and a Netflix original. It is not a “light category”, it is literally the center of the dispute.

On the acting side, Clayton Davis names Timothée Chalamet as favorite comedy/musical actor for Marty Supreme, ahead of George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Brendan Fraser, Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) and Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice). The idea of ​​Chalamet winning his first Globe in this field – in a ping-pong-weird Safdie sports film – is the flavor of the season: pop, authorial and competitive at the same time.

As a comedy/musical actress, the scenario is even more symbolic: Cynthia Erivo emerges as the absolute favorite for Wicked: For Good, reprising Elphaba, in a campaign that is at the same time theatrical, cinematic and pop. Alongside her are Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), who won in Berlin, Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) and Emma Stone (Bugonia). In the alternates line, names like Pamela Anderson (The Naked Gun) and Olivia Colman (The Roses) still hover around the board, ready to invade the conversation.

In supporting roles, the message is similar: Ariana Grande appears as the favorite supporting actress for Wicked: For Good, while Gwyneth Paltrow (Marty Supreme) and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) complete the trio that attracts the most attention at the moment.

In supporting actor, Stellan Skarsgård emerges as the name to beat for Sentimental Value, flanked by Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Benicio Del Toro and *Sean Penn (One Battle After Another).

In other words: if anyone still thought that comedy/musical was the “light backyard” of the Globes, 2026 came to bury that idea.

Drama is still king – but with a more defined map

That said, the field of drama remains the province of classical prestige. The prediction for best drama film today looks like this:

Frankenstein (Netflix)

Hamnet (Focus Features) – predicted to win

It Was Just an Accident (Neon)

The Secret Agent (Neon)

Sentimental Value (Neon)

Sinners (Warner Bros.)

Much of what we were already intuiting is confirmed here:

– Hamnet as the season’s big “prestige drama”,
– Sinners as a powerful studio drama,
– Sentimental Value as a European favorite,
– Frankenstein as a monster (with a pun) from Netflix,
– and The Secret Agent engraved on the map as a key piece, both in drama and international film.

In the performances, the design is also very clear.

In drama actor, the forecast brings:

Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams)

Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player)

Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein)

Dwayne Johnson (The Smashing Machine)

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent – ​​PREDICTED AS WINNER

Yes: in Variety’s projections, Wagner is today ahead of Michael B. Jordan, Oscar Isaac and co. That alone would be huge. Add to this the fact that The Secret Agent also appears among the likely nominees for best drama film and best film in a non-English language and we have a ready-made narrative: after Fernanda Torres, Wagner consolidates the Latin – and Brazilian – moment in the season.

In drama actress, the name that dominates is Jessie Buckley, favorite of Hamnet. The list also features Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?), Jennifer Lawrence (Die My Love), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Sydney Sweeney (Christy) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda). Buckley enters the season with that ungrateful and very powerful label of “locked and loaded contender”: everyone already writes her name in bold pencil.

Behind the scenes of direction, a pattern: Paul Thomas Anderson appears as the favorite for best director for One Battle After Another, ahead of Park Chan-wook (No Other Choice), *Ryan Coogler (Sinners), *Mona Fastvold (The Testament of Ann Lee), *Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) and Chloé Zhao (Hamnet). In other words: drama and comedy/musical meet here – PTA’s “comic” film is treated with the same reverence as heavy dramas.
In script, favoritism leans towards Ryan Coogler, for Sinners, with Hamnet, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value and Train Dreams completing the picture. Train Dreams, in fact, appears both in the script and in the actor (Joel Edgerton) and among the film alternates – a clear sign that it could be the “slow burn” of the season.

In the more technical blocks:

– in soundtrack, the favorite is Ludwig Göransson for Sinners, with Desplat (Frankenstein), Max Richter (Hamnet), Hildur Guðnadóttir (Hedda) and *Jonny Greenwood (One Battle After Another) making up a category that looks like a festival lineup of composers;

– in original song, the main bet is “Golden”, by KPop Demon Hunters;

– in animation, Zootopia 2 leads;

– and in Cinematic and Box Office Achievement, Sinners appears again as a favorite, competing for space with Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, KPop Demon Hunters, Superman, Weapons and Wicked: For Good.

And on TV? What Awards Junkies Are Betting On

I consider 2026 to be one of the most competitive years for TV. The bets for comedy series look like this:

Abbott Elementary (ABC)

The Bear (FX on Hulu)

Hacks (Max)

Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Shrinking (Apple TV+)

The Studio (Apple TV+)

Alt: Wednesday (Netflix)

In other words: the reading is that Globo should “copy and paste” a lot of the Emmy, with The Bear, Abbott and Hacks at the center, but leaving space for Only Murders, Shrinking and the newcomer The Studio. Wednesday appears as that popular alternative that can break the bubble. And The Studio should emerge victorious.

Among comedy actors, the same panel points out:

Adam Brody – Nobody Wants This

Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building

Seth Rogen – The Studio

Jason Segel – Shrinking

Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building

Jeremy Allen White – The Bear

Alt: Tim Robinson – The Chair Company

In practice, this means:
– Jeremy Allen White remains strong for The Bear, while the Steve Martin / Martin Short duo remains strong for Only Murders, and names like Jason Segel and Seth Rogen could be “nice news” for Globo to embrace.

In comedy actress, the design is:

Kristen Bell – Nobody Wants This

Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

Ayo Edebiri – The Bear

Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building

Jenna Ortega – Wednesday

Jean Smart – Hacks

Everything: Rachel Sennott – I Love LA

Here, the dispute is beautiful on paper:
– Quinta Brunson as the face of open network comedy,
– Jean Smart as an undisputed veteran force,
– Ayo Edebiri as a phenomenon of the new generation,
– Selena Gomez and Jenna Ortega representing the power of youth streaming.

Any combination of five of these names yields a very strong category.

In drama, the bets for best series are as follows:

The Last of Us (HBO)

The Morning Show (Apple TV+)

The Pitt (Max)

Severance (Apple TV+)

Slow Horses (Apple TV+)

The White Lotus (HBO)

All: Wycaro (Apple TV+)

In other words: the Globe tends to be divided between the “premium events” of HBO (The Last of Us, The White Lotus), the corporate prestige of The Morning Show and the elegant strangeness of Severance. Slow Horses and The Pitt complete this “platform adult drama” look.

In drama actors, the suggested framework is:

Sterling K. Brown – Paradise

Tom Hiddleston – The Night Manager

Gary Oldman – Slow Horses

Pedro Pascal – The Last of Us

Adam Scott – Severance

Noah Wyle – The Pitt

Alt: Jon Hamm – Your Friends and Neighbours

In drama actresses:

Kathy Bates – Matlock

Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age

Britt Lower – Severance

Bella Ramsey – The Last of Us

Keri Russell – The Diplomat

Rhea Seehorn – Wycaro

Alt: Michelle Pfeiffer – The Madison

In a miniseries or TV movie, initial bets include:

Adolescence (Netflix)

All Her Fault (Peacock)

Death by Lightning (Netflix)

Dying for Sex (FX)

Monster: The Original Monster (Netflix)

With a cast of protagonists including Robert De Niro, Stephen Graham, Charlie Hunnam, Matthew Macfadyen, Mark Ruffalo, Michael Shannon, Sarah Snook, Michelle Williams, Renée Zellweger, among others. This is the category where Globo traditionally likes to make a “gesture”: rewarding a very intense, very transformative performance, which becomes headlines the next day.

Now we have to wait for the 8th to see how much these predictions come true – and how much Globo will do what it does best: make us angry, excited and, above all, talking about it for weeks.